Special Report by Javed Mahmood, Editor Corporate Ambassador & PCNN/ISLAMABAD
India has once again paced up phobia of war with Pakistan after Uri terrorist attack on Indian army’s camp. These days political and diplomatic tension between Pakistan and India is again at its peak because of provocative statements of Indian Prime Minister, Ministers and extremist politicians against Pakistan that can push both the countries into nuclear war.
After Uri attack, India has blamed Pakistan for this attack and Pakistan has denied it vehemently saying it a baseless and venomous propaganda of India. Now both the countries, for the third time since nuke tests in 1998, have deployed more troops on borders and also moved tanks and artillery close to border areas.
In both the countries, the issue of war has become talk of the town now. Interestingly, every time India heightens war tension and after making provocative statements and venomous campaign against Pakistan for few weeks/months, Indians give up their plan of attacking Pakistan, knowingly their neighbour is well-armed with nuclear and missile weapons that can shatter the Indians dreams, their future and the fast-growing economy.
India blames Pakistan for sponsoring non-state actors, but in his visit to Dhaka, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is known as an extremist leader of the BJP, proudly stated that India supported Mukti Bahni in East Pakistan that led to the creation of Bangladesh.
He also stated that he himself participated in fight against Pakistan Army in East Pakistan as a volunteer with Mukti Bahni. This clearly shows that the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi is himself an extremist, militant, a terrorist and his ambition is to create troubles for Pakistan.
Before visiting Bangladesh, Indian Prime Minister has strongly opposed the China-Pak Corridor Project when he visited China and held meeting with his Chinese counterpart, but his Chinese counterpart gave him shut-up call over CPEC.
A few months ago, Indian Information Minister said that India can strike anywhere, where it sees the threat of terrorism. He said that like Burma, India could strike inside Pakistan. Burma, however, denied late Wednesday night that Indian army attacked inside Burma and stated that Indian army carried out action on its own border.
Now once again Indians are talking about surgical strikes in Azad Kashmir and some areas of their choice in Pakistan. Below are key facts of multi-layer security of Line of Control by Indian security forces that makes clear that no one can cross this security circle to penetrate into the Indian Occupied Kashmir from AJK, Pakistan.
Top officials of Pakistan Army held an important meeting over Indians provocative statements against Pakistan and pledged to give a befitting response to any misadventure of India. Pakistani Army Chief Gen. Raheel Sharif said the military is capable of defending every inch of its motherland.
In his Defence Day speech the chief of army staff Gen. Raheel said: “We are friend for friends and enemy for enemy”.
Now we look back to 2001-2002 Indian conspiracy in which India blamed Pakistan for Dec 2001 Mumbai attacks and deployed its armed forces along border. Pakistan also reciprocated with the same zest and deputed Army in a tit-for-tat strategy. This military stand-off continued for the six consecutive months, but India did not dare to attack Pakistan fearing a serious retaliation and backlash from the regime of Gen. Pervez Musharraf.
This was the second major military standoff between India and Pakistan following the successful detonation of nuclear devices by both countries in 1998, the other had been the Kargil War in 1999 in which Pakistani military killed thousands of Indian army personnel.
The military buildup was initiated by India after terrorist attacks on the Indian Parliament on 13 December 2001 (during which 12 people, including the five men who attacked the building, were killed). India claimed that the attacks were carried out by two Pakistan-based terror groups, but Pakistan strongly denied it. Later on, Indian officials themselves disclosed that it was a conspiracy against Pakistan and whole world witnessed that drama.
Now we discuss here as to who would be the major loser in case India imposes war on Pakistan. Pakistan is famous world over as a beggar country that gets three to four billion dollars a year from major donor agencies and the countries to meet balance of payment obligations and other purposes.
The size of Pakistan’s GDP is about 340 billion US dollars while the Indian GDP is about 1880 billion US dollars, many times larger than Pakistan. The market capitalisation of Karachi Stock Exchange these days is around 85 billion dollars while Indian stock markets capitalisation is over one trillion US dollars.
In 2014-15 the foreign trade of Pakistan mounted to about 70 billion dollars (US$ billion 25 exports & US$45 billion imports) while Exports of India in March 2015 mounted to $24 billion (just one month exports of India were equal to annual exports of Pakistan and same is the trend in imports).
The inflow of foreign investment in India in financial year 2016 could cross $60 billion, while Pakistan has received only about US$O.8O billion foreign investment in FY2016. In financial year 2015/16, India received US$70 billion remittances while Pakistan received only US$20 billion remittances from overseas expatriates.
So the war between the two countries could put at stake billions of dollars foreign investment in India and war could put a full stop on the inflow of foreign investment in India in future.
Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves are over and above US$20 billion in Sept 2016 and Indian reserves stand above US$367 billion dollars by Aug 19, 2016. Like big difference in the economy of the two countries, there is also a wide gap in the size of population in Pakistan and India. Population in Pakistan is about 200 million while India hosts over 1.25 billion people.
As India is much larger than Pakistan in size, economy, population and wealth, it is understood that the Indians will suffer greater losses in case of war with Pakistan.
For example, if a missile or bomb kills 10 people in Pakistan, the matching retaliation would lead to 200 or more killings in India in one incident because of the bigger size of the population.
Similarly, if Pakistan suffers one million dollars worth loss or more in one incident of war, India would lose more than 100 million dollars, or much more than it. As Pakistan is also a nuclear power, India must not under-estimate the defence deterrence and capability of this country.
Political and defence analysts say that war between Pakistan and India could shatter the Indian dream of becoming regional economic in future. Even Indians too have sounded this feeling and they have asked their government in 2001-2002 and in 2008 as well to use the tactic of pressure, instead of direct war.
Analysts also say that at this time war would benefit Pakistan as the government could pull-out all its forces pitched against local militants and the armed forces and militants can struggle jointly for the survival of the country and to teach a long-lasting lesson to the arch rival neighbouring country.
It is a known fact that Pakistan is a renowned beggar country and the beggars lose nothing in war or fight. Because like past Pakistan would continue to receive 3-4 billion dollars annual loans/assistance from the international donor agencies and countries in future. But the misadventure of a full-scale war (that can ultimately convert into nuclear war) could turn India into a beggar country too.
New war could also throw India into the club of high-risk countries, leading to an unbelievable loss to her economy, foreign investment, multi-national companies, mega companies and capital markets.
Instead of hurling threats on Pakistan and using provocative language and statements against Pakistan, India should give attention to her own diehard extremists, separatists and those who killed Indian ATS Chief Karkare during Mumbai carnage, the man who expose the involvement of Indian Colonel in the Samjhota Express carnage.
India should also weed out black sheep in her Armed Forces because the involvement of Indian Army Colonel in the Samjhota Express case had not only exposed the Indian army but defamed it at all forums.
Worth to note is that more than 64,000 Indians have fallen prey to India’s own extremism since 1994 and the extremists party of India, BJP and its extremist Prime Minister Narendra Modi must show sane attitude to save millions of people who can become victims of new war between the two nuclear powers.