Special Report by Javed Mahmood, Chief Editor Corporate Ambassador
Once again, speculations are rife that India can carry out nuclear attack on Pakistan. And a debate has begun whether or not two nuclear powers can go for a full-fledged first-ever nuclear war in the world. This debate has resurfaced soon after the second time victory of BJP-led Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, known as an extremist Hindu and killers of Muslims in India.
So far, there is no precedent of full-scale war between any two nuclear powers in the world. However, if India dares to attack on Pakistan, it will, indeed, lead to a nuclear war. In a recent skirmish, Pakistan has shot down two war-planes of India and the Indian government and army did not dare to attack Pakistan keeping in mind the nuclear capability of Pakistan.
Worth to note is that during his visit to Dhaka, (Bangladesh) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is known as an extremist leader of the BJP, proudly stated that India supported Mukti Bahni in East Pakistan that led to the creation of Bangladesh.
He also stated that he himself participated in fight against Pakistan Army in East Pakistan as a volunteer. Before visiting Bangladesh, Indian Prime Minister has strongly opposed the China-Pak Corridor Project when he visited China and held meeting with his Chinese counterpart.
Interestingly, from the day Pakistan has implemented the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), we are hearing about war and proxy war by India against Pakistan. Do you think China who is also an arch-rival of India, would remain a silent spectator in case India imposed war on Pakistan _ certainly not.
Now we look back to 2001-2002 Indian conspiracy in which India blamed Pakistan for Dec 2001 Mumbai attacks and deployed its armed forces along border. Pakistan also reciprocated with the same zest and deputed Army in a tit-for-tat strategy. This military stand-off continued for the six consecutive months, but India did not dare to attack Pakistan fearing a serious retaliation and backlash from the regime of Gen. Pervez Musharraf.
This was the second major military standoff between India and Pakistan following the successful detonation of nuclear devices by both the countries in 1998, the other had been the Kargin War in 1999 in which Pakistani military killed thousands of Indian army personnel.
The military buildup was initiated by India after terrorist attacks on the Indian Parliament on 13 December 2001 (during which twelve people, including the five men who attacked the building, were killed). India claimed that the attacks were carried out by two Pakistan-based terror groups, but Pakistan strongly denied it. Later on, Indian officials themselves disclosed that it was a conspiracy against Pakistan and whole world witnessed that drama.
Now we discuss here as to who would be the major loser in case India imposes war on Pakistan. Throughout the world, Pakistan is famous world over as a beggar country that gets three to five billion dollars every year from major donor agencies and the countries to meet balance of payment obligations and other purposes.
The size of Pakistan’s GDP is less than 370 billion US dollars while the Indian GDP is above 2000 billion US dollars, many times larger than Pakistan. The market capitalisation of Karachi Stock Exchange these days is around 80 billion dollars while Indian stock markets capitalisation is over one trillion US dollars.
In 2017-18 the foreign trade of Pakistan mounted to about 75 billion dollars (US$ billion 24 exports & US$51 billion imports) while Exports of India in March 2015 mounted to $24 billion (just one month exports of India were equal to annual exports of Pakistan and same is the trend in imports).
Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves are close to 17 billion dollars in June 2015 and Indian reserves stand above 350 billion dollars in 2015.
Like big difference in the economy of the two countries, there is also a wide gap in the size of population in Pakistan and India. Population in Pakistan is about 200 million while India hosts over 1.25 billion people. As India is much larger than Pakistan in size, economy, population and wealth, it is understood that the Indians will suffer greater losses in case of war with Pakistan.
For example, if a missile or bomb kills 10 people in Pakistan, the matching retaliation would lead to 200 or more killings in India in one incident because of the bigger size of the population.
Another major hurdle in the way of India to attack Pakistan is the massive inflow of foreign investment. Every year, India is attracting more or less US$65 billion foreign investment, whereas, Pakistan is hardly getting two billion dollars foreign investmet in a year. Hence, in last 10 years, India has received more than US$600 billion foreign investment and do you think the foreign investors would support India to throw their billions of dollars into war-flames and ashes, certainly not.
Similarly, if Pakistan suffers one million dollars worth loss or more in one incident of war, India would lose more than 100 million dollars, or much more than it.
As Pakistan is also a nuclear power, India must not under-estimate the defence deterrence and capability of this country. Political and defence analysts say that war between Pakistan and India could shatter the Indian dream of becoming regional economic in future. Even Indians too have sounded this feeling and they have asked their government in 2001-2002 and in 2008 as well to use the tactic of pressure, instead of direct war.
Analysts also say that at this time war would benefit Pakistan as the government could pull-out all its forces pitched against local militants and the armed forces and militants can struggle jointly for the survival of the country and to teach a long-lasting lesson to the arch rival neighbouring country.
It is a known fact that Pakistan is a renowned beggar country and the beggars lose nothing in war or fight. Because like past Pakistan would continue to receive 4-5 billion dollars annual assistance from the international donor agencies and countries in future. But the misadventure of a full-scale war (that can ultimately convert into nuclear war) could turn India into a beggar country too.
New war could also throw India into the club of high-risk countries, leading to an unbelievable loss to her economy, foreign investment, multi-national companies, mega companies and capital markets. Instead of hurling threats on Pakistan and using provocative language and statements against Pakistan, India should give attention to her own diehard extremists, separatists and those who killed Indian ATS Chief Karkare during Mumbai carnage, the man who expose the involvement of Indian Colonel in the Samjhota Express carnage.
India should also weed out black sheep in her Armed Forces because the involvement of Indian Army Colonel in the Samjhota Express case had not only exposed the Indian army but defamed it at all forums.
Worth to note is that more than 64,000 Indians have fallen prey to India’s own extremism since 1994 and the extremists party of India, BJP and its extremist Prime Minister Narendra Modi must show sane attitude to save millions of people who can become victims of new war between the two nuclear powers.
Finally, before opting for attack, India must keep in mind the Pakistan’s courage of shooting down two Indian war-planes recently. At present, India will not find any kind of sympathy from Pakistan that it was getting from PML(N) government and Sharif family. Downing of two Indian war-planes means Pakistan is pursuing a zero tolerance in case of Indian aggression.
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Weekly Corporate Ambassador 